财报日惨跌后,特斯拉通常会怎么走? How does Tesla usually go after a sharp drop in earnings day?
来源:华尔街见闻
作者:王眉
据统计,特斯拉股价在财报日惨跌后的第一天平均上涨0.4%,累计有7次上涨。在大幅下跌一周后,股价平均上涨1.4%,比第一天的反弹又多了一个百分点。
隔夜,$特斯拉(TSLA.US)$股价暴跌逾9%,这已经是连续第三次特斯拉在公布财报后股价暴跌了。
在今年一季度业绩公布后,特斯拉股价下跌了9.7%;二季度业绩公布后,仍下跌了9.7%;在周三公布令人失望的第三季度业绩后,周四特斯拉股价下跌9.3%,收于220.11美元。
周四,$标普500指数(.SPX.US)$和$纳斯达克综合指数(.IXIC.US)$分别下跌0.85%和0.96%。
特斯拉财报问题出在是利润率和定价。特斯拉降价导致营业利润率低于8%,同比下降近10个百分点。特斯拉CEO马斯克在财报电话会议上所说的话听起来也不乐观,他谈到了高利率损害需求和经济。
不过,历史经验显示,特斯拉接下来可能会出现温和反弹。
据统计,特斯拉股价在财报日惨跌后的第一天平均上涨0.4%,累计有7次上涨。在大幅下跌一周后,股价平均上涨1.4%,比第一天的反弹又多了一个百分点。
技术面上,研究公司CappThesis的创始人兼市场技术分析师FrankCappelleri查看了特斯拉股价的走势图,以了解近期投资者进场买入的水平,他表示,有几个关键水平值得投资者关注:
今年初,特斯拉股价约为每股123美元,年中最高到达超过290美元,当随后跌至222美元时,跌破了Cappelleri关注的水平。当一只股票跌幅如此之大时,交易员就会考虑买入。
另外两个水平,一个是217美元,相当于2月和6月的高点;另一个是214美元,也就是200日移动均线。如果跌破214美元,将给投资者带来更多痛苦。
话说回来,特斯拉的投资者已经习惯了财报带来的波动。财报公布后,特斯拉股票的平均涨幅或跌幅约为7%。相比之下,$苹果(AAPL.US)$股价的平均涨幅约为4%。
有趣的是,特斯拉股价在财报公布后有58%的时间会下跌,苹果股价在财报公布后有58%的时间会上涨。
在过去的41个季度里,特斯拉的业绩有13次低于预期,苹果有3次。
编辑/tolk
Source:WallStreetNews
Author:WangMei
Accordingtostatistics,Tesla'sstockpricerosebyanaverageof0.4%onthefirstdayafterthesharpdroponthefinancialreportday,withacumulativeincreaseof7times.Afteraweekofsharpdecline,stockpricesrosebyanaverageof1.4%,anotherpercentagepointmorethanthereboundonthefirstday.
Overnight,$Tesla(TSLA.US)$Thestockpriceplummetedbymorethan9%.ThisisthethirdtimeinarowthatTesla'sstockpricehasplummetedafterannouncingfinancialreports.
Aftertheresultsforthefirstquarterofthisyearwereannounced,Tesla'sstockpricefell9.7%;afterthesecondquarterresultswereannounced,itstillfell9.7%;afterannouncingdisappointingthird-quarterresultsonWednesday,Tesla'sstockpricefell9.3%tocloseat$220.11onThursday.
OnThursday,$S&P500Index(.SPX.US)$with$NasdaqCompositeIndex(.IXIC.US)$Decreasedby0.85%and0.96%,respectively.
TheproblemwithTesla'searningsreportisprofitmarginsandpricing.Tesla'spricecutcausedtheoperatingmargintofallbelow8%,downnearly10percentagepointsfromthepreviousyear.WhatTeslaCEOMusksaidontheearningscalldidn'tsoundoptimisticeither.Hetalkedabouthighinterestrateshurtingdemandandtheeconomy.
However,historicalexperienceshowsthatTeslamayexperienceamoderatereboundinthefuture.
Accordingtostatistics,Tesla'sstockpricerosebyanaverageof0.4%onthefirstdayafterthesharpdroponthefinancialreportday,withacumulativeincreaseof7times.Afteraweekofsharpdecline,stockpricesrosebyanaverageof1.4%,anotherpercentagepointmorethanthereboundonthefirstday.
Onthetechnicalside,FrankCappelleri,founderandmarkettechnologyanalystoftheresearchcompanyCappThesisIlookedattheTeslastockpricecharttounderstandtherecentlevelofinvestorsenteringthemarkettobuy,hesaid,Thereareafewkeylevelsworthpayingattentiontoforinvestors:
Atthebeginningofthisyear,Tesla'sstockpricewasabout123USdollarspershare,reachingamid-yearhighofover290USdollars,thenfellto$222Atthetime,itfellbelowthelevelthatCappelleriwasconcernedabout.Whenastockfallsthismuch,tradersconsiderbuyingit.
Theothertwolevels,oneis$217,whichisequivalenttothehighsofFebruaryandJune;theotheris$214,thatis,the200-daymovingaverage.Ifitfallsbelow$214,itwillcausemorepainforinvestors.
Havingsaidthat,Teslainvestorsareusedtothefluctuationsbroughtaboutbyfinancialreports.Afterthefinancialreportwasannounced,theaverageincreaseorfallofTeslastockwasabout7%.Incontrast,$Apple(AAPL.US)$Theaverageincreaseinstockpriceswasaround4%.
What'sinterestingisthatTesla'sstockpricewillfall58%ofthetimeafterthefinancialreportisannounced,andApple'sstockpricewillrise58%ofthetimeafterthefinancialreportisannounced.
Inthepast41quarters,Tesla'sperformancefellshortofexpectations13times,andApple3times.
editor/tolk