洪灝 | 2023年下半年展望：进则无咎 （英文版）
转自：HaoHONG
这是我们2023年5月22日发表的《洪灝|2023年下半年展望：进则无咎》的英文原版报告HaoHong | Outlook2H2023:ThisTimeisDifferent
China’srecordtradesurplusmirrorsthesurgeindepositsandM2.ItisatestamentofChina’smanufacturingprowess.ButsuchcomparativeadvantagealsomeansthatChineseexportshavebeenthekeytocopewiththeslowdownduringthepandemic.TheUSdemandisnowbeingtamperedwithbytheFed,hamperingChina’smanufacturingandexportsstrength.Assuch,commodities,energy,andChinesestocksarefraildespiteChina’sreopen.
Chinesehouseholdsareoverextendedduringthepandemic,andarenotinastrongpositiontoborrowmore.Thisiswhylendinglagsmoneygrowth,and“revengeconsumption”isfleeting.Further,consumptionisamuchsmallerpartoftheChineseeconomy,andthustheforeignrecoveryexperiencewon’teasilyapply–contrarytoconsensusbelief.
IftheUSavoidsarecession,Chinesemanufacturingandexportswillpullthrough.BottomingindustryprofitsandrecoveringconfidencebothintheUSandChinaarehintingatrisingprobability.Ifso,therecoverywilltakesometimetoeventuate,andriskassetswillperformlater.Ifnot,themarketwilltakeadive,butthenthecentralbank willlikelyeasefurthertosupporttherecovery–muchlikeitdidin2014to2015.Ineitherscenario,wemusttakeadeepbreath,andholdontoourfaithalittlelonger.