VIX飙升，道琼斯指数下跌，因为通货膨胀紧张情绪使美联储的宽松希望破灭：交易员现在定价2024年只有一次降息
MarketsexperiencedasharpdownturnThursdayafternoonfollowinganinitialsurgetohistorichighsintechnology-heavystockindices,drivenbyNvidiaCorp.'s(NASDAQ:NVDA)spectacularAI-drivenearningsreport.
TheCBOEVolatilityIndex(VIX),alsoknownasthemarketfearindex,surgedover7%afterhittingitslowestlevelsinceNovember2019earlierinthesession.
Blue-chipstockswereparticularlyaffectedinabroadsectorselloff.TheDowJonesIndustrialAverage,trackedbytheSPDRDowJonesIndustrialAverageETF(NYSE:DIA),wasdown1.5%at3:00p.m.inNewYork,ontrackforitsworstperformancesinceMarch2023.
BoththeS&P500,trackedbytheSPDRS&P500ETFTrust(NYSE:SPY),andtheNasdaq100,monitoredthroughtheInvescoQQQTrust(NASDAQ:QQQ),fell0.9%.
Chipmakersweretheonlyindustryinthegreen,withtheVanEckSemiconductorETF(NYSE:SMH)up0.8%,thankstoNvidia's8.7%rally.
Chart:DowEyesWorstDayInOverAYear
WhatHappened:SentimenttookahitafterS&PGlobalreleaseditsMayprivatesectoractivitysurveys.TheCompositePMIIndex,agaugeofoverallbusinesshealth,showedthehighestexpansionrateintwoyears.
Thismightseemlikegoodnews,butthedevilisinthedetails.
"InputpricescontinuedtorisesharplyinMay,withtherateofinflationacceleratingtoregisterthesecond-largestmonthlyincreaseseenoverthepasteightmonths,"S&PGlobalreported.
Inparticular,manufacturersexperiencedasteepincrease,facingthelargestcostriseinayearandahalf.Thiswasattributedtohighersupplierpricesforawidevarietyofinputs,includingmetals,chemicals,plastics,andtimber-basedproducts,aswellashigherenergyandlaborcosts.
ChrisWilliamson,chiefbusinesseconomistatS&PGlobal,indicatedthatsellingpriceinflationhasincreased,continuingtosignalmodestlyabove-targetinflation.
Hehighlightedthattheprimaryinflationarypressurenoworiginatesfrommanufacturingratherthanservices.Thisshifthasresultedinelevatedratesofinflationforbothcostsandsellingpricescomparedtopre-pandemicstandards,implyingthatreachingthe"Fed's2%targetstillseemselusive"
WhyItMatters:Stronger-than-expectedbusinesssentimentgrowthandrenewedinflationaryconcernspushedTreasuryyieldsupacrosstheboard,leadinginvestorstoreassessthelikelihoodofFedinterestratecuts.
Notably,therehasbeenasignificantshiftinratecutexpectations.Fedfuturesarecurrentlypricinginonly34basispointsofratecutsbyyear-end,translatingtojustoneratecut.
WhileinvestorshadanticipatedaratecutbySeptemberasofWednesday,thisexpectationhasnowbeenpostponedtoNovember,accordingtotheCMEGroupFedWatchTool.
Therate-sensitivetwo-yearTreasuryyieldleapedby6basispointsto4.93%,eyeingthehighestclosesinceMay1.
Thedollarwastheonlygaineramongmajorassetclasses,withtheInvescoDBUSDBullishIndexFundETF(NYSE:UUP),up0.2%.
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