海外之声丨IMF副总裁李波：扩大新兴市场和发展中经济体气候融资规模

导读

到2030年，全球排放量需要比2019年前减少25%至50%，这样才能将气温上升控制在1.5至2摄氏度之间。IMF分析显示当前的全球气候目标只能实现11%的减排。因此，全球需要更多雄心、更强有力的政策和更多的实施资金。到2050年，实现适应和缓解目标所需的资金估计每年消耗数百万亿美元，但是目前为止，全世界每年只有大约6300亿美元的气候资金，其中只有一小部分流向了发展中国家。如何促进融资？

首先，聚焦能够将高排放项目的投资流转向绿色项目的政策。推出更明智的监管、价格信号和有针对性的补贴，激励低碳投资，同时关注每个国家独特的财政和宏观金融特征。

第二项是能力建设。需要加强与气候项目相关的公共财政管理和公共投资管理，以便决策者实施必要的改革。各国需要有能力识别、评估和选择高质量的项目，并管理相关的财政风险。

第三项是创新的金融机制，包括去风险工具和更广泛的投资者群体。投资新兴和发展中经济体的投资者面临一系列障碍，克服这些障碍需要公共部门、私营部门和多边机构转变思维方式，以改革金融架构。最重要的是，公私协同作用至关重要。混合金融在吸引公共和私营部门投资者方面能发挥重要作用。公共部门，包括国家政府和EIB等多边开发银行，可以提供第一损失投资、权益资本或增信服务。

为了实现共同的气候目标，我们必须结合政策改革、能力发展和融资，全球需要更多合作与协调。

作者丨李波（IMF副总裁）

ScalingupClimateFinanceforEmergingMarketsandDevelopingEconomies     

SpeechbyDeputyManagingDirectorBoLiatEIBGroupForum2023

February27,2023

Goodafternoon.ItisanhonortojoinyouhereinLuxembourgforthefirsteverEuropeanInvestmentBankGroupForum.

Aswegathertodiscusshowwecanaddressthechallengesofclimatechange,letmefirsttakestockofthewidereconomiccontext.

Weexpect2023tobeanotherchallengingyearfortheglobaleconomy.InourlatestIMFWorldEconomicOutlook,weexpectglobalgrowthtofallfromanestimated3.4percentin2022to2.9percentin2023.

IntheEuroArea,theslowdownisevenmorepronounced—from3.5percentin2022toanexpected0.7percentthisyearbeforeamodestreboundto1.6percentin2024.Anddespitetherecentdropinenergyprices,weexpectenergysecurityconcernswillcontinuetoloomlargeinEurope.

Thisspeakstotheimportanceofthegreentransition—awayfromfossilfuelsthataresubjecttosupplydisruptionsandvolatility,andtowardsrenewablessuchaswindandsolarenergy.

Thegrowingimpactofglobalwarmingremindsusoftheurgency.FromheatwavesinEuropeandwildfiresinNorthAmerica,todroughtsinAfricaandfloodsinAsia:lastyearsawclimatedisastersonallfivecontinents.Theeffectsofclimatechangeareallaroundus.

Withoutdecisiveaction,thingsaresettogetworsebecauseweareclearlynotontherighttrajectoryforcuttingglobalemissions.

Weneedtocutglobalemissionsby2550percentby2030comparedtopre-2019levelstocontaintemperaturerisestobetween1.5and2degreescelsius.

IMFanalysisofcurrentglobalclimatetargetsshows,unfortunately,theywouldonlydeliveran11percentcut—lessthanhalfoftheminimumreductionthatisneeded.Andsoweneed higherambition, strongerpolicies,and morefinance forimplementation.

ThislastpointiswhereIwillfocusmyremarkstoday.

FinancingneededtomeetadaptationandmitigationgoalsareestimatedattrillionsofUSdollarsannuallyuntil2050.

Butsofar,weareseeingonlyaround 630billiondollarsayearinclimatefinanceacrossthewholeworld—withonlyafractiongoingtodevelopingcountries.

Thisisparticularlyconcerning—becauseemerginganddevelopingeconomieshavevastneedsforclimatefinance.Anditunderlineswhyit’ssoimportantforadvancedeconomiestomeetorexceedthepledgeofproviding$100billionperyearinclimatefinancefordevelopingcountries.

Thisisnotjusttherightthingtodo,itisthesmartthingtodo.

Why?Becauseunderabusiness-as-usualscenariomiddle-andlow-incomecountriesareexpectedtoaccountfor66percentofglobalCO2emissionsby2030,upfrom44percentin1990.

Inotherwords,becauseclimatechangeisaglobalproblem,itrequirescoordinatedglobalsolutions.

So,whatcanwedotoboostfinancing?

First ,focusonthepoliciesthatcanredirectinvestmentflowsfromhigh-carbonprojectstowardsclimatefriendlyopportunities.Here,thinkofsmarterregulation,pricesignalsandwelltargetedsubsidiesthatincentivizelow-carboninvestmentwhilepayingattentiontoeachcountry’suniquefiscalandmacro-financialcharacteristics.

The second priorityistobuildcapacity.Weneedtostrengthenpublicfinancialmanagementandpublicinvestmentmanagementrelatedtoclimateprojectsforpolicymakerstoimplementneededreforms.Countriesneedthecapacitytoidentify,appraiseandselectgoodqualityprojects,aswellastomanagerelevantfiscalrisks.

Thereisasignificantscarcityofhighqualityandreliabledata,harmonizedandconsistentsetofclimatedisclosurestandards,andtaxonomiestoaligninvestmentstoclimate-relatedgoals.So,capacitybuildingisneededtostrengthentheclimateinformationarchitecturethatwillhelpdevelopanddeepenthecapitalmarketsandimprovethebankabilityofprojects.

Innovativefinancialstructurescanalsocatalyzetechnicalassistanceprogramstosupportthecreationofnewmarketsforclimatefinancebydevelopingguidelines,providingtrainingprogramsforlocalstakeholders,andfacilitatingtheadoptionoftheprinciplesandinternationalbestpracticesinemergingmarkets.

Thisbringsmetomy third priority: innovativefinancialmechanismsincludingde-riskinginstrumentsandabroaderinvestorbase.

Atamoregranularlevel,investorswhowanttodeploycapitalintoemerginganddevelopingeconomiesmustovercomeahostofconstraints.Theseincludehighupfrontcostsandlongtimeframesassociatedwithclimateinvestments,lackofliquidmarkets,foreignexchangerisk,andscarcityofwell-plannedandscalableprojects.

Overcomingtheseobstaclesrequiresa changeofmindset –fromthepublicsector,theprivatesector,andmultilateralinstitutions–torevampthefinancialarchitecturesomoreprivatefinanceispulledtowardsclimateprojects.Thatmeansbeingflexible--readytocomplementa national strategy witha regionalstrategy asappropriate;oradopta programmatic approachinadditiontothetraditional project-based approachinimplementationtosuitinstitutionalmandatesandneeds.

Aboveall, public-privatesynergies willbecritical.

Considergreenbondfundsthatcantapintothevastresourcesofinstitutionalinvestorsbyusingrelativelylimitedpublicresources.Suchfundshavegreatpotential,astheexampleoftheAmundiPlanetEmergingGreenOnefundshows.

SetupwiththesupportoftheInternationalFinanceCorporation(IFC)andEIB,theAmundigreenfundsuccessfullyleveragedprivatecapitalbyseveralmultiples.Andlet’snotforgettheinvestorswhocontributedtothatsuccessbytakingcalculatedrisks,includingtheIFCandEIBwhichinvestedintheequityandseniortranchesofthisfund.

Butthisisn’ttheonlywaythatmultilateraldevelopmentbankscanhelp.

Blendedfinance canplayanimportantroleto crowdinpublicandprivatesectorinvestors.Publicsector,includingnationalgovernmentsandmultilateraldevelopmentbanksliketheEIB,couldprovide first-loss investments, equitycapital,or creditenhancements.Andbyprioritizingequityoverdebt,developmentpartnersandmultilateraldevelopmentbankswouldalsoavoidaddingtothesovereigndebtburdensofdevelopingcountries.

AttheIMF,wehavesteppedupandembracedthemindsetchangethatisrequiredtotackleclimatechange.Wehaveputclimateattheheartofourwork–insurveillance,capacitydevelopment,lending,andindataanddiagnostictools,includingtheclimateinformationarchitecture,

IncollaborationwiththeWorldBank,theBankforInternationalSettlements,andtheOECD,theFundisdevelopingoperationalguidanceontheG20high-levelprinciplesforsustainablefinancealignmentapproaches.AndthenewG20DataGapsInitiativewillhelpdevelopdetailedstatisticsonclimatefinanceandforward-lookingphysicalandtransitionrisksindicators.

Onthelendingside,ournewResilienceandSustainabilityTrust(RST)willprovidelonger-termaffordablefinancingforourvulnerablelow-andmiddle-incomemembers.

Ourgoalisthat–throughtheRST–policyreforms,capacitydevelopment,andfinancingarrangementcanbedeliveredinapackageusedtoimprovethepolicyandcapacityenvironmentandscaleupclimatefinancebycrowdinginlarge-scaleprivatecapital.

Forexample,capacitydevelopmentcanempowerpolicymakerstobetteridentify,appraise,andselectgoodqualityprojects.Andclimate-friendlypublicfinancialmanagementandpublicinvestmentmanagementpromoteaccountability,transparency,andmoreeffectivespending.

Suchmeasurescannotonlyhelpgovernmentsmanagepotentialrelevantfiscalrisksfromthevariousfinancingoptions–theycanalsogiveinvestorsgreatercertaintythattheirfundsarespenteffectivelyandbringinnew,interesteddonorsthroughimprovedtransparencyandgovernance.

Inaddition,withtheIMF’sexpertiseinmacroeconomicandfinancialsectorissues,wearehopefulthatwecangathernationalauthorities,multilateraldevelopmentbanks,andtheprivatesectorincludinginstitutionalinvestors,exportcreditagencies,andotherstoidentifyandexploresolutionstobroadentheinvestorbaseandscaleupprivatefinance.

WearealreadyworkingwithsomeofthesepartnerstoseehowtheRST—byleveragingsoundpoliciesandcreatingadditionalfiscalspace—canpromotefinancingarrangementsorfacilitiesthatcouldmobilizelargescaleprivatecapital.

Letmeconclude.

Todeliveronoursharedclimategoals,wemust combinepolicyreforms,capacitydevelopment,andfinancingarrangements.Whatweneedtodayisunprecedentedcooperationandcoordination.

Thatiswhythisinauguralforumissoimportant.

Peoplegatheredherehaveexpertiseinpublicandprivateinvestment,structuringfinancialinstruments,R&D,andlow-carbontechnologiesamongothers.

Andeachofushasauniqueroletoplay–andwemustallstepup.

Becauseifwedonotdeliveronthefinancingneedsofemergingmarketsanddevelopingeconomies,wecannothopetomeetthegoalsoftheParisAgreement.

编译：龚宇盛

监制：董熙君

来源｜IMF

版面编辑｜邸馨逸

责任编辑｜李锦璇、蒋旭

来源：IMI财经观察