英文版摘要｜复苏态势好于上季度 防风险任务依然艰巨——中国宏观金融分析2023年第三季度报告

THERECOVERYTRANDISBETTERTHANTHEPREVIOUSQUARTER

THETASKOFRISK-PREVENTIONREMAINSARDUOUS

ChinaMacroFinancialAnalysis2023Q3

Inthethirdquarterof2023,theglobaleconomicandfinancialsituationasawholepresentsa“quadrifurcation”state.Globalgrowthfacesdownsiderisks,butasevererecessionisunlikelyintheshortterm.Firstly,theeconomiccyclesofmajorglobaleconomiesarediverging,withtheU.S.economystilldemonstratingrobustresilience.Secondly,inflationvariessignificantlyamongeconomies,withpricesspiralingoutofcontrolinsomedevelopingcountries,whilepricesintheU.S.andEuroperemainrelativelyhigh,andChinaisslowlyreboundingfromthebrinkofdeflation.Thirdly,monetarypoliciesofmajoreconomiesarediverging,witheconomiesliketheU.S.andEurozone,whichfacehighinflationarypressures,continuingtoraiseinterestrates,albeitataslowerpace,whileChinastillhasacertaindemandforratecuts.Fourthly,theinternationalfinancialmarketisexperiencingfluctuations,withevensignificantdifferentiationwithinsimilarmarkets.Thedivergenceinthebulkcommoditymarket,particularlyinfoodcategories,adequatelyreflectsthevaryingcircumstancesoffood-producingcountries,whiletheupsanddownsinthestockmarketreflectthenewtrendsininternationalcapitalflows.GiventhattheU.S.economyislikelytoachievea“softlanding”andChina’seconomyisimproving,theprobabilityofasevereglobaleconomicrecessionintheshorttermissmall.

Thelong-terminterestratesandDollarIndexintheU.S.aregraduallyapproachingaphase“peak”.TheU.S.,asthe“centralcountry”intheglobalgrowthsystemandfinancialmarketstructure,maystillseeinterestratehikesbytheFederalReserveinthenextthreemonths,maintaininghighinterestratesforsometimetobringpricesbacktopolicytargets.However,thelong-termyieldonU.S.governmentbondsandtheDollarIndexmaygraduallyapproachaphasehigh.5%couldbeaphasepeakfortheyieldon10-yearU.S.Treasurybonds,asinflationandinflationexpectationsfall,ratehikesslow,publicdebtburdensincrease,andrealeconomiccostsremainhigh,makingitdifficultforU.S.long-terminterestratestocontinuetorisesignificantly.110maybeaphasepeakfortheDollarIndex,aslong-terminterestratesapproachtheirpeak,interestratedifferentialsarehardtoexpandfurther,economicfundamentalsweakenslightly,andglobalriskaversionsentimenteases.

TheforeignexchangemarketinChinaisstabilizinginstages.AlthoughChina'seconomicgrowthrateiscurrentlylow,duetotheDollarIndexapproachingitsphasepeakandpositivefactorssuchasChina'seconomicfundamentalscontinuingtorecover,improvedmarketexpectations,andsmoothercommunicationandcooperationmechanismswithexternalparties,itisexpectedthattheRMBexchangerateanditsmarketexpectationswillstabilizeinstages.Thiswillbewellcorroboratedbyshort-termmacroeconomic,industry,andmicro-entitydata.Whetherthisshort-termstabilizationtrendcanbetransformedintomedium-andlong-termcyclicalmomentumorstructuraldividendsrequiresstrengtheningthepertinenceandeffectivenessofmacroeconomicpolicies.

SinceQ22023,China'seconomyhasseenaweakeningofitscontinuousrecoverymomentum,mainlyduetodomesticdemandfailingto“fillthegap”againstthebackdropofpersistentandrapiddeclineinexternaldemand.EnteringQ3,withvariouspro-growthpoliciesgraduallybeingimplemented,domesticconsumption,investment,andproductionaremarginallywarmingup,supportingtheeconomytograduallystabilize;however,insufficientdemandisstillthekeyissueconstrainingeconomicgrowth.Tostimulatedemand,thecentralbankhascutinterestratesandreserverequirementsandincreasedcreditprovision,buttherearebottlenecksinthetransmissionpathfrom"loosemoney"to"loosecredit",andtheproblemofcreditcontractionintherealeconomystillexists.

Inthecontextofcontinuousdeclineinexports,stabilizingandenhancingdomesticdemandiskeytothesustainabledevelopmentofChina’seconomy.Short-termcounter-cyclicalregulationandmedium-andlong-termstructuralreformsneedtobecloselycoordinated:firstly,thegovernment(includingstate-ownedenterprises)shouldtransfermoreincometothehouseholdsectortopromotesustainablegrowthinconsumption;secondly,thegovernmentshouldincreasereliefeffortstopromoteastablerecoveryintherealestatemarket;thirdly,byreducingcostsandexpandingthedevelopmentspaceoftheprivateeconomy,thereturnonrealinvestmentcanbeimproved;fourthly,byexpandingthecentralfiscaldeficitandreformingthebasiccurrencyissuancemechanism,thedomesticeconomicandfinancialcyclecanbesmoothed.

Thematicanalysisshowsthatthereisampleroomforinterestratecutsinmonetarypolicywhilemaintainingreasonableprofitsandnetinterestmarginsforcommercialbanks.Theresultsoftheoreticalmodelcalculationsshow:firstly,a10basispointdecreaseinloaninterestratesreducescommercialbanks'netinterestmarginby0.07percentagepoints,expandsinvestmentby0.75percentagepoints,boostsconsumptionby0.045percentagepoints,increasesoutputby0.2percentagepoints,andraisesinflationby0.04percentagepoints.Therefore,asmallinterestratecutwillnothaveasignificantimpactoncommercialbanks'netinterestmargins,anditseffectonpromotinggrowthisalsoquitelimited.Secondly,undercurrenteconomicconditions,giventhe“deductionline”(1.8%)and“warningline”(0.8%)setbyregulatorsforcommercialbanks’netinterestmargins,themaximumasymmetricratecutthatcommercialbankscantolerateisatleast100basispoints.Thisindicatesthatthereisstillconsiderablepolicyspaceforthecentralbanktolowerloaninterestratestoexpandinvestmentandconsumptiongrowth,thusbetterpromotingeconomicgrowth.Thirdly,commercialbankswithhigherleverageratiosaremoreimpactedbyratecutsandwillmorequicklyreachthe“warningline”setbyregulatorsforcommercialbanks’netinterestmargins.Insummary,undercurrentcircumstances,monetarypolicyisstilleffectiveaslongasratecutsaresignificantenough;meanwhile,effortsshouldbemadetounblockthetransmissionmechanismofmonetarypolicytofullyleveragetheroleofratecuts.