坐以袋币！哪个股市更有潜力？ Sit back with a bag of coins! Which stock market has more potential?
来源：港股解码
潮涨潮退，是地球的自然现象；同样，在资本市场，潮涨潮退也是常规操作，有起有伏，有流出的资产类别，自然会有接纳这些资金的去处。
持币趋向
“股神”巴菲特投资旗舰$伯克希尔-A(BRK.A.US)$上周五通过大宗交易，以大约137.1亿卢比（约合1.647亿美元）的价格，出清其在印度支付公司Paytm的所持有1560万股持股，加权平均成本价约为877.29卢比。
巴菲特最初投资软银支持的Paytm是在2018年9月，以220亿卢比（约合3亿美元）买入其2.6%的权益。随后在Paytm于2021年11月上市时，伯克希尔及时地减持了当时价值22亿卢比的股份。这次清仓之后，巴菲特于Paytm的投资或损失60亿卢比。
伯克希尔的清仓并非无迹可寻，据报道，这家印度支付公司或面临印度最严厉的监管，将受到最近监管机构干预零售贷款的影响，有关的措施主要面向非银行金融公司和银行的消费者贷款。
因此，资金流出一项资产是基于理性决定，同样，流入一项资产也是基于理性的考量。
事实上，最近几个季度伯克希尔持续减持或退出股份股权投资，将资金囤了起来。
于2023年9月30日，伯克希尔所持的现金季现金等价物已高达1,170.41亿美元，相当于一个星巴克为3761.45亿元人民币，较上个季度降低52.13亿元人民币，所持有的现金及定期存款规模则达到3874.51亿元人民币，高于三个月前的3718.32亿元人民币，见下图。
财华社已在今年9月发布的文章阐述了大路资金的流向——货币基金，持币与流动性债券蔚然成风，这其实也意味着资金正在等待机会，而不是直接投入久期更长的投资产品，例如长期债券，或许可以推断，这部分资金是松动的，当物色到具有吸引力的投资标的时，这些资金很大可能快速集结。
那么，现在哪个市场最有可能带来收益？我们先来看看宏观环境。
全球利率环境
从其央行最新表态来看，欧盟和英国的加息周期很有可能快要终结，不过高利率在短期内仍将持续。
美联储的加息周期也可能在明年中下旬之前完结，但考虑到当前的通胀仍偏高，转向降息以刺激经济或尚需时间。
这意味着到明年上半年，欧美成熟经济体的高利率水平将会维持。随着高利率持续的时间越长，对于这些地区的企业影响越大，加息会带来投资的收缩、成本的增加，传递到企业端及实体经济通常有半年到一年以上的消化时间。
或许可以预期，加息对欧美企业经济活动的影响将在明年下半年加快体现，资本市场（例如股市）一般会提早反映，间隔或半年至一年（因实际经济活动与会计、财报存在时间差，股市一般会提前反映企业的经营表现），这或意味着欧美股市在明年上半年可能会出现回调压力。
在现今，美元依然是全球最重要的交易货币、结算货币以及使用货币，也因此美元资金走向哪里，哪里更容易掀起巨浪，最近的日股就是典型的例子。
财华社从美国财政部的数据留意到，美国本土私人资金的走势与宏观经济走向一致：在2020年全面刺激经济，利率见底的2020年，美国私人买入美股的规模大幅攀升，而到2022年初美联储蓄势待发准备加息之前，当地私人资本开始从美股出逃，再到最近的6月，由于企业业绩理想以及加息预期转弱的憧憬，当地私人资金又再冲入美股，而到最近两个月，资金开始出逃。
值得留意的是，在6月份当地私人资本大买美股之际，美国于外国股票的现金流出也达到最高。不过到最近两个月资金开始从美股出走时，美国对外国股票的投资又再恢复正流入，见下图。
说到外国股票，相信大家首先会想到今年尤其出彩的日股。
还是日股吗？
今年以来，巴菲特屡屡增持日股大大提振了全球资金对日股市场的信心，国际游资大量涌入，让日股见到了春天。
见下图，日经225指数的点位（蓝线）在今年大幅攀升，而市盈率估值（阴影部分）似乎尚适宜，也仅到达中位数水平而已，也许意味着仍有向上的余地。
作为国际金融中心的港股市场一直是美国投资者热衷投资的目的地，在2020年-2021年全球牛市期间，进入港股市场的美国资金也十分显著，长期高于日股。但是今年以来，投资港股市场的美资显著收缩，而投资日股的却反向飙前，见下图。
美资买日股的趋势会一直持续吗？恐怕未必。
见下图，在四月份巴菲特透露出对日股的钟爱后，流入日股的美资大幅攀升，但其后出现放缓，到9月份更是大跌，10月份稍稍回升，不过显得颇为踌躇。
需要注意的是，日本经济GDP中，出口贸易占了大部分，因此币值对其意义重大。日元利率长期处于零及负利率，得益于欧美加息，日元相对于欧元和美元的币值持续受压，有利其出口企业。
但是欧美加息周期不可能永远持续，一旦欧美利率周期转向，将带起日元升值压力，从而令出口企业的盈利能力受到影响。最重要的是，长期处于零息的日元，可调控的空间也十分有限，也很被动，将更容易受到国际利率市场风向变化的影响。
未来资金走向何方？
那么资金会走向何方？可能是下降几率较低的市场，例如港股和A股，拥有世界最大经济体和消费群体之一，大中华区的经济活动不容忽视，经过连场下跌，两地市场的估值已处于偏低的水平，进一步下跌的空间或有限，失败几率相对较低。
见下图，美股今年反弹带起了标普、纳斯达克指数与道指（DJI.US）的市盈率估值，但是A股与港股大致持平，港股的市盈率更跌至最低。
外资流走应是令两地市场受压的其中一个主要原因，见下图，北向资金（南水）通过沪深股通（到A股）的累计净流入几乎持平，而南向资金（A股账户通过港股通进入H股的资金）却持续攀升，这反映外资虽走，但内资仍在买。
此外，央行的数据显示，相对于M0和M1的扩张速度，M2的扩张持续保持加速度，见下图，M2与M0和M1的差距持续拉大。
M0通常指的是银行体系外流通的现金；M1通常指的是M0与企业活期存款，或反映当前的社会购买力；M2通常指的是M1加个人及企业存款，反映的是消费或支出潜力。而从当前M2增速远超M0与M1可以看出，存款规模在持续扩大，也意味着消费和支出潜力巨大，只是大家不愿意用来消费或投资。
所以从资金的基本面来看，可用来投资的资金是存在的，只是大家更宁愿保持观望的态度，看看全球宏观经济环境的变化，以及经济复苏的速度。
从另一个角度来看，外资的大量流出也意味着AH股的风险进一步下降（资金带来的波动与震荡或显著降低），而我们已在上文分析，目前外国投资者以及有实力的企业都倾向于囤积现金以等待机会。从这个角度来看，一旦他们物色到市场出现机会，他们能灵活快速地将资金调配到相应的市场赚取较高的回报，而估值偏低的市场例如AH股或更具反弹潜力。所以短暂的撤离未必是坏事，或许为其回流累积更大的动能。
编辑/Corrine
Source:HongKongStockDecoded
TidesandebbsareanaturalphenomenononEarth;similarly,inthecapitalmarket,ebbsandflowsarealsoroutineoperations.Thereareupsanddowns,andthereareoutflowsofassetclasses,soofcoursetherewillbeplacestoacceptthesefunds.
Coinholdingtrends
“Stockgod”Buffettinvestsinflagship$BerkshireHathaway-A(BRK.A.US)$Itcleared15.6millionsharesheldbyIndianpaymentcompanyPaytmatapriceofabout13.71billionrupees(US$164.7million)throughabulktransactiononFriday.Theweightedaveragecostpricewasabout877.29rupees.
BuffettfirstinvestedinPaytmbackedbySoftBankinSeptember2018,buying2.6%ofitsequitywith22billionrupees(about300millionUSdollars).Then,whenPaytmwentpublicinNovember2021,Berkshirepromptlyreduceditssharesworth2.2billionrupeesatthetime.Afterthisclearance,Buffett'sinvestmentinPaytmmayhavelost6billionrupees.
Berkshire'sclearanceisnotwithoutatrace.Accordingtoreports,thisIndianpaymentcompanymayfacethestrictestregulationinIndiaandwillbeaffectedbytherecentregulatoryagencyinterventioninretailloans.Therelevantmeasuresaremainlyaimedatconsumerloansfromnon-bankfinancialcompaniesandbanks.
Thus,capitaloutflowsfromanassetarebasedonrationaldecisions;similarly,inflowsintoanassetarealsobasedonrationalconsiderations.
Infact,inrecentquarters,Berkshirehascontinuedtoreduceitsholdingsorwithdrawfromequityinvestment,hoardingcapital.
AsofSeptember30,2023,thecashequivalentofthecashseasonheldbyBerkshirehasreachedUS$117.041billion,whichisequivalenttothemarketvalueofaStarbucks().Sincethisyear,theamountofcashheldbyBerkshirehasincreasedbyUS$30.225billion,asshowninthechartbelow.
Similarly,duetothepoorperformanceofthesecondarymarketandtheundervaluationoftheexitfromtheprimarymarket,largetechnologycompaniesthatareintheharvestperiodandpreferventurecapitalandventurecapitalhavealsosloweddownthepaceofacquisitionsandinsteadhoardedcash.
Theonethatisjokinglycalledaninvestmentcompany$TENCENT(00700.HK)$Forexample,inthepast,itwasnecessarytoinvestinmanyventurecapitalandventurecapitalcompanieseveryyear,butfromthesecondhalfof2022tothisyear,thepaceofinvestmenthasclearlysloweddown,andexpenseshavebeenexpandedandcostsreducedthroughopensourceandsavings.
OnSeptember30,2023,thebookvalueofTencent'sunlistedinvestments(includingwealthmanagementproducts)was376.145billionyuan,adecreaseof5,213billionyuanfromthepreviousquarter.Theamountofcashandtimedepositheldreached387.451billionyuan,upfrom371,832billionyuanthreemonthsago,asshowninthechartbelow.
AnarticlepublishedbyCaihuaNewsAgencyinSeptemberofthisyearexplainsthegeneralflowofcapital—monetaryfunds,currencyholdings,andliquidbondsarealltherage.Thisactuallyalsomeansthatcapitaliswaitingforanopportunityratherthandirectlyinvestingininvestmentproductswithalongerperiodoftime,suchaslong-termbonds.Itmaybededucedthatthisportionofcapitalisloose.Whenattractiveinvestmenttargetsarefound,thesefundsarelikelytoaccumulatequickly.
So,whichmarketsaremostlikelytogeneraterevenuerightnow?Let'stakealookatthemacroenvironmentfirst.
Globalinterestrateenvironment
Judgingfromitscentralbank'slateststatement,itislikelythattheinterestratehikecycleintheEUandtheUKwillsooncometoanend,buthighinterestrateswillcontinueintheshortterm.
TheFed'sinterestratehikecyclemayalsoendbeforemid-latenextyear,butconsideringthatcurrentinflationisstillhigh,itmaytaketimetoswitchtointerestratecutstostimulatetheeconomy.
Thismeansthatbythefirsthalfofnextyear,thehighinterestratesofmatureEuropeanandAmericaneconomieswillremainhigh.Ashighinterestratescontinueforlonger,theimpactonenterprisesintheseregionsbecomesgreater.Interestratehikeswillleadtoacontractionininvestmentandanincreaseincosts,whicharetransmittedtotheenterprisesideandtherealeconomy,whichusuallytakeshalfayeartoayearormoretodigest.
ItmaybeanticipatedthattheimpactofinterestratehikesontheeconomicactivitiesofEuropeanandAmericancompanieswillbereflectedfasterinthesecondhalfofnextyear,andcapitalmarkets(suchasthestockmarket)willgenerallyreflectearly,atintervalsofhalfayeartooneyear(duetothetimedifferencebetweenactualeconomicactivityandaccountingandfinancialreports,thestockmarketwillgenerallyreflectthebusinessperformanceofenterprisesinadvance).ThismaymeanthattheEuropeanandAmericanstockmarketsmayexperiencepullbackpressureinthefirsthalfofnextyear.
Today,theUSdollarisstillthemostimportanttradingcurrency,settlementcurrency,andcurrencyofuseintheworld.Therefore,whereisthedollar'scapitalgoingandwhereitismorelikelytocausehugewaves?TherecentJapanesestockmarketisatypicalexample.
CaihuaNewsAgencynoticedfromdatafromtheUSTreasuryDepartmentthatthetrendofprivatecapitalintheUSisinlinewiththemacroeconomictrend:in2020,whentheeconomywasfullystimulatedin2020andinterestratesbottomedout,thescaleofUSprivatepurchasesofUSstocksrosesharply.Untilthebeginningof2022,beforetheFederalReservewaspoisedtoraiseinterestrates,localprivatecapitalbegantofleefromUSstocksuntilrecentlyinJune,duetoidealcorporateperformanceandweakeningexpectationsofinterestratehikes,localprivatecapitalhasonceagainrushedintoUSstocks,andinthelasttwomonths,capitalhasbeguntoflee.
ItisworthnotingthatwhenlocalprivatecapitalboughtUSstocksinJune,UScashoutflowsfromforeignstocksalsoreachedthehighestlevel.However,bythetimecapitalbegantowithdrawfromUSstocksinthelasttwomonths,USinvestmentinforeignstockshadresumedpositiveinflows,asshowninthechartbelow.
Whenitcomestoforeignstocks,IbelieveeveryonewillfirstthinkofJapanesestocks,whichhavebeenparticularlyprominentthisyear.
IsitstillaJapanesestock?
Sincethisyear,Buffett'srepeatedincreaseinJapanesestockholdingshasgreatlyboostedglobalcapital'sconfidenceintheJapanesestockmarket.AlargeinfluxofinternationalinvestorshasbroughtspringtoJapanesestocks.
Asyoucanseeinthechartbelow,theNikkei225index(blueline)hasrisensharplythisyear,whiletheprice-earningsratiovaluation(shadedpart)seemstobeappropriateandhasonlyreachedthemedianlevel,whichmaymeanthereisstillroomforimprovement.
Asaninternationalfinancialcenter,theHongKongstockmarkethasalwaysbeenakeeninvestmentdestinationforUSinvestors.Duringtheglobalbullmarketfrom2020to2021,theUScapitalenteringtheHongKongstockmarketwasalsoremarkable,andwashigherthanJapanesestocksforalongtime.However,sincethisyear,USinvestmentintheHongKongstockmarkethasshrunkmarkedly,whileinvestmentinJapanesestockshasinsteadsoared.Seethechartbelow.
WillthetrendofUSinvestorsbuyingJapanesestockscontinue?I'mafraidit'snotnecessary.
Asyoucanseeinthechartbelow,afterBuffettrevealedhisloveforJapanesestocksinApril,theinflowofUScapitalintoJapanesestocksrosesharply,butthentherewasaslowdown,thentherewasasharpdeclineuntilSeptember.TherewasaslightrecoveryinOctober,butitseemedquitehesitant.
ItshouldbenotedthatexporttradeaccountsforthemajorityoftheJapaneseeconomy'sGDP,sothevalueofthecurrencyissignificanttoit.InterestratesontheJapaneseyenhavebeenatzeroandnegativeinterestratesforalongtime.ThankstointerestratehikesinEuropeandtheUS,thevalueoftheyencontinuestobepressuredagainsttheeuroandtheUSdollar,whichisbeneficialtoitsexportingcompanies.
However,theinterestratehikecycleinEuropeandtheUScannotlastforever.OncetheEU-USratecyclechanges,itwillputpressureontheyentoappreciate,therebyaffectingtheprofitabilityofexportingcompanies.Mostimportantly,theJapaneseyen,whichhasbeenatzerointerestforalongtime,hasverylimitedroomforcontrolandisalsoverypassive,soitwillbemoresusceptibletochangesinthedirectionoftheinternationalinterestratemarket.
Wherewillcapitalgointhefuture?
Sowherewillthecapitalgo?Itmaybethatmarketswithalowchanceofdecline,suchasHongKongstocksandAshares,haveoneofthelargesteconomiesandconsumergroupsintheworld.EconomicactivityinGreaterChinacannotbeignored.Afteraseriesofdeclines,thevaluationofthetwomarketsisalreadyatalowlevel.Theremaybelimitedroomforfurtherdecline,andthechanceoffailureisrelativelylow.
Asshowninthechartbelow,thereboundinUSstocksthisyearledtoprice-earningsratiovaluationsforS&P,theNasdaqIndex,andtheDow(DJI.US),butA-shareswereroughlythesameasHongKongstocks,andtheprice-earningsratioofHongKongstocksfelltoaminimum.
Theflowofforeigncapitalshouldbeoneofthemainreasonsforthepressureonthemarketsofthetwoplaces.Asshowninthechartbelow,thecumulativenetinflowofnorthboundcapital(southwater)throughtheShanghaiandShenzhenStockExchange(toAshares)hasremainedalmostflat,whilesouthboundcapital(capitalfromA-shareaccountsenteringHsharesthroughHongKongStockConnect)continuestorise.Thisreflectsthatalthoughforeigncapitalhasleft,domesticcapitalisstillbuying.
Furthermore,centralbankdatashowsthatcomparedtotheexpansionrateofM0andM1,theexpansionofM2continuestoaccelerate.Asshowninthechartbelow,thegapbetweenM2,M0,andM1continuestowiden.
M0usuallyreferstocashcirculatingoutsideofthebankingsystem;M1usuallyreferstoM0andcorporatedemanddeposits,orreflectscurrentsocialpurchasingpower;M2usuallyreferstoM1pluspersonalandcorporatedeposits,reflectingconsumptionorspendingpotential.However,ascanbeseenfromthecurrentM2growthrate,whichfarexceedsM0andM1,thesizeofdepositscontinuestoexpand,whichalsomeansthatthereishugepotentialforconsumptionandexpenditure,butpeopleareunwillingtospendorinvest.
Therefore,judgingfromthefundamentalsofcapital,thereiscapitalthatcanbeusedforinvestment,butpeopleprefertomaintainawait-and-seeattitudeandseethechangesintheglobalmacroeconomicenvironmentandthespeedofeconomicrecovery.
Fromanotherperspective,thelargeoutflowofforeigncapitalalsomeansafurtherreductionintheriskofAHshares(fluctuationsandshockscausedbycapitalmaybesignificantlyreduced),yetaswehaveanalyzedabove,currentlyforeigninvestorsandpowerfulcompaniestendtohoardcashtowaitforopportunities.Seenfromthisperspective,oncetheyidentifyopportunitiesinthemarket,theycanflexiblyandquicklyallocatecapitaltocorrespondingmarketstoearnhigherreturns,whileundervaluedmarkets,suchasAHshares,mayhavemorepotentialtorebound.Therefore,abriefwithdrawalisnotnecessarilyabadthing;itmayaccumulatemoremomentumforitsreturn.
Editor/Corrine